World Cup Group D Guide: Odds, Picks & Team Analysis
Updated July 30, 2026
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/6odq5wN_Jl0
2026 FIFA World Cup
Updated after Matchday 2 · June 12 to 25, 2026 · Los Angeles · Vancouver · Seattle · Santa Clara
Teams
host 🇺🇸
United States
6 pts · +5 GD
group win
Won
🇹🇷
Turkiye
0 pts · -3 GD
Out
🇵🇾
Paraguay
3 pts · -2 GD
qualification
2nd/3rd
🇦🇺
Australia
3 pts · 0 GD
qualification
2nd/3rd
Overview
Sharp Sheet
Fixtures
Standings
Best bets
United States
Expert insight: Group D has split cleanly after two rounds. The United States have won the group with a game to spare, Turkiye are eliminated, and Paraguay vs Australia is now the second-place decider.
ATS.io expert verdicts
Market | Top pick | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
Group winner | United States | Settled. The USA followed the 4-1 Paraguay win with a 2-0 victory over Australia and have clinched first place before facing eliminated Turkiye. |
2nd-place race | Australia draw or win | Australia sit ahead of Paraguay on goal difference and only need a draw in Santa Clara to finish second. Paraguay must win to jump them. |
Match to watch | PAR vs AUS | This is now the live Group D game. Australia can manage risk, while Paraguay have to attack without suspended Miguel Almiron. |
Team-news edge | USA rotation | Pochettino is expected to protect players on yellow cards against Turkiye, including Tyler Adams, Antonee Robinson, Chris Richards and Folarin Balogun. |
The sharp edge
The betting edge has moved away from the group-winner market because that is now settled. The live position is Paraguay vs Australia. Paraguay are slight favorites in the match market, but Australia have the more favorable scenario because a draw is enough for second place and may also leave Paraguay in a strong third-place position. The Almiron suspension matters because Paraguay need more invention, not less, in a match they likely have to win to avoid relying on the third-place table. USA vs Turkiye is more about rotation, rhythm and yellow-card management than standings.
Key fixture: Paraguay vs Australia (June 25, Santa Clara) decides second place in Group D. Australia advance as runners-up with a draw; Paraguay need a win.
Final-day picture
Team | Status | Path from here | |
|---|---|---|---|
United States | Group winner | Qualified and locked into first place. Turkiye is a rotation and momentum game. | |
Australia | Controls 2nd | Draw or win against Paraguay and the Socceroos finish second. A narrow loss could still leave a wildcard route. | |
Paraguay | Must win for 2nd | A win takes Paraguay to six points and second place. A draw likely means a third-place wildcard wait. | |
Turkiye | Eliminated | Can only play spoiler against the USA after back-to-back defeats to Australia and Paraguay. |
Green = automatic qualification path. Amber = third-place wildcard route possible. Grey = eliminated.
Group analysis
Group D no longer looks like the pre-tournament toss-up it once was. The United States have taken six points from six, beaten Paraguay 4-1 and Australia 2-0, and secured top spot before the final round. Pochettino can now manage minutes, protect players on yellow cards and decide how much risk to take with Christian Pulisic after his calf issue.
The second-place race is much more interesting. Australia opened with a 2-0 upset of Turkiye and then lost 2-0 to the USA, leaving Tony Popovic's side on three points and level with Paraguay. Their advantage is goal difference. That means a draw in Santa Clara is enough to finish second, while a win would confirm a strong recovery from the USA defeat.
Paraguay kept themselves alive with a gritty 1-0 win over Turkiye, scored through Matias Galarza after just 65 seconds. The downside is the Miguel Almiron red card, which removes their most recognizable attacking player from the Australia game. Gustavo Alfaro's team have to win to take second place, so their usual defensive caution has to be balanced against the need to chase the match.
Turkiye are the major disappointment of the group. A 2-0 defeat to Australia and a 1-0 loss to 10-man Paraguay have knocked out a side that entered with Guler, Yildiz and Calhanoglu but has produced no goals through two games. The USA match is about pride, but the group has already moved on without them.
Matchday 1 results
United States 4-1 Paraguay
FT
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, Los Angeles
USA win
Four-goal statement
PAR goal kept GD at -3
Australia 2-0 Turkiye
FT
BC Place, Vancouver
AUS win
Irankunda 27'
Metcalfe 75'
Matchday 2 results
United States 2-0 Australia
FT
Lumen Field, Seattle
USA group winners
Burgess OG 21'
Freeman 43'
Turkiye 0-1 Paraguay
FT
Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara
PAR win
Galarza 2'
Almiron red card
Matchday 3 (simultaneous kickoffs)
Turkiye vs United States
June 25, 10:00 PM ET
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, Los Angeles
TUR +270
Draw +300
USA -110
Paraguay vs Australia
June 25, 10:00 PM ET
Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara
PAR +120
Draw +230
AUS +255
Odds via DraftKings, ESPN and Oddschecker. Lines subject to change.
Current standings
Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | United States | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 6 |
2 | Australia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
3 | Paraguay | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
4 | Turkiye | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Top 2 teams per group qualify automatically for the Round of 32. The 8 best third-place teams across all 12 groups also advance. USA have clinched first place in Group D. Australia finish second with a draw or win against Paraguay. Paraguay need to beat Australia to finish second. Turkiye are eliminated.
Best bets
Best value
Australia draw or win vs Paraguay
Lean
Australia only need a draw to finish second, and their defensive shape is well suited to that game state. Paraguay are dangerous, but losing Almiron removes the one player most capable of turning possession into a clean chance.
Match pick
Paraguay vs Australia draw
+230
The draw sends Australia through as runner-up and likely leaves Paraguay alive in the third-place table. With both sides knowing a loss creates unnecessary jeopardy, a controlled, lower-event match makes sense.
Rotation angle
USA to beat Turkiye
-110
The USA will rotate, but Turkiye have been poor through two matches and are already eliminated. Pochettino can rest yellow-card risks and still field enough quality to win at SoFi.
Group D betting analysis
The group-winner market is closed. USA have won Group D after six points from their first two matches, and their final game against Turkiye is now a squad-management spot. The only betting question there is how much rotation matters against an eliminated opponent that has not scored in the tournament.
The sharper game is Paraguay vs Australia. Australia have the standings advantage, but the market still gives Paraguay a narrow edge. That makes sense if you rate Paraguay's defensive structure and the urgency of needing a win, but the absence of Almiron is a real attacking downgrade. Australia can defend in a back five, play for set pieces and counters, and accept long spells without possession.
For live betting, the first goal is everything. If Paraguay score first, Australia have to abandon their preferred low-risk state. If Australia score first, Paraguay must chase without their best creator. If it is level after 60 minutes, the draw price becomes the cleanest read because it suits Australia and may still keep Paraguay alive as a third-place side.
Player props
NI
Nestory Irankunda shot on target
Paraguay vs Australia
Watch
JG
Matias Galarza to be carded
Paraguay vs Australia
Watch
RP
Ricardo Pepi anytime scorer
Turkiye vs USA
+165
Odds correct at time of writing via DraftKings, ESPN and Oddschecker. Lines subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.
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