The Las Vegas Aces head to Texas for a Thursday night meeting with the Dallas Wings in a game that carries early-season importance for both clubs. Las Vegas enters after a frustrating 101-95 loss to Los Angeles, while Dallas is riding high following an impressive 91-76 road win against New York. Oddsmakers still view the Aces as the stronger side thanks to their veteran core led by A’ja Wilson, but the Wings have shown signs that their young roster is beginning to click behind Paige Bueckers and Arike Ogunbowale. Here, I break down this Western Conference matchup and make my Aces vs Wings prediction in the betting markets.
Our Aces vs Wings Pick
Pick: Las Vegas Aces -4.5
Confidence: 4 out of 5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Las Vegas Aces @ Dallas Wings
Date & Time: Thursday, May 28, 8:00 PM ET
Venue: College Park Center, Arlington, Texas
Broadcast: Prime Video
Key Storylines
Dallas enters with confidence after beating New York by 15 points on the road.
Las Vegas has won 9 of the last 10 meetings against Dallas.
The Wings have improved offensively with Paige Bueckers running the offense alongside Arike Ogunbowale. They have won three of their last four games going into this contest.
The Aces are looking for a bounce-back effort after allowing 101 points to Los Angeles.
A’ja Wilson remains one of the toughest frontcourt assignments in the league, and the Wings are weakest in their frontcourt.
Key Players
Dallas Wings
Paige Bueckers has become the engine of the Dallas offense. The second-year guard is averaging over 19 points per game while also creating shots for teammates.
Arike Ogunbowale continues to provide explosive scoring from the perimeter. She remains Dallas’ top late-game shot creator and stretches defenses with deep shooting range.
Jessica Shepard gives Dallas stability in the paint with rebounding and passing. She has become one of the better facilitating forwards in the league and is averaging close to a double-double.
Las Vegas Aces
A’ja Wilson remains the centerpiece of the Aces. She enters this game averaging more than 24 points and over 7 rebounds per game. Her efficiency around the basket and defensive presence continue to separate Las Vegas from most teams.
Jackie Young has been a steady scoring option on the perimeter. Young adds another layer to the offense with her ability to attack off the dribble and knock down outside shots.
Chelsea Gray controls the flow of the offense and remains one of the league’s best playmakers. Her court vision becomes even more important in close games.
Chennedy Carter gives Las Vegas another aggressive scoring threat. Her speed in transition can create problems for a Dallas defense that still struggles to contain dribble penetration.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
Las Vegas is 2-4 ATS this season.
Dallas is 4-3 ATS this season.
The over has hit in 3 of the Aces’ first 6 games.
The under has cashed in 5 of Dallas’ first 7 games.
Aces vs Wings Model Projection
Score Projection: Las Vegas Aces 92 - Dallas Wings 86
Win Probability: Las Vegas Aces 64%, Dallas Wings 36%
Dallas deserves respect after the way it handled New York earlier this week. Bueckers continues to look comfortable running the Dallas offense, and the Wings are clearly moving the ball better than they did early in the season. Still, this matchup presents a difficult defensive assignment because Las Vegas has multiple scorers capable of taking over stretches of the game.
The biggest edge belongs to the Aces in late-game execution. Wilson remains the best player on the floor, and Las Vegas still owns one of the most experienced cores in the WNBA. Dallas has improved offensively, but the Wings have struggled to contain elite frontcourt talent, which becomes a major concern against Wilson. Expect Dallas to keep things competitive through three quarters before Las Vegas pulls away behind efficient half-court offense and strong free-throw shooting in the closing minutes.
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