Tunisia vs Netherlands Prediction: World Cup Preview & Best Bets
Updated July 9, 2026
Tunisia meet the Netherlands on June 25 at Kansas City Stadium in a Group F match that looks one-sided on paper, but still has betting value if you look past the basic moneyline. Tunisia are already out after losing 5-1 to Sweden and 4-0 to Japan, while the Netherlands sit on 4 points after a 2-2 draw with Japan and a 5-1 win over Sweden. The Dutch still have group position to play for, and that matters here. A win likely puts them in control of their knockout path, while Tunisia are playing for pride under Hervé Renard after a rough mid-tournament coaching change.
Pick: Netherlands -1.5 +140
Confidence: 4 out of 5
The betting market has already made its opinion clear. The Netherlands are listed around -195 to -200 on the moneyline, with Tunisia priced between +525 and +550. The draw sits near +330, while the total is set at 2.5 goals, with Over 2.5 around -110 and Under 2.5 close to -105. That tells us the Dutch are expected to win, but the better betting angle may be whether they win by enough.
Tunisia have had a brutal group stage. They were opened up repeatedly by Sweden, then offered very little resistance against Japan, conceding early and never really finding a way back into the game. Through 2 matches, Tunisia have allowed 9 goals and scored only 1. That is not just bad variance. The defensive spacing has been poor, the midfield has been too easy to play through, and the back line has struggled when opponents attack with pace from wide areas.
The Netherlands, on the other hand, arrive after their best performance of the tournament. The 5-1 win over Sweden was exactly the type of response Ronald Koeman needed after the late 2-2 draw with Japan. Brian Brobbey gave the Dutch a more direct threat through the middle, Cody Gakpo looked sharp in finishing areas, and Denzel Dumfries was a major outlet down the right. That wide threat is especially important here because Tunisia have been exposed badly when forced to defend crosses, cutbacks, and runners arriving from deep.
There are still a couple of things to watch. Virgil van Dijk and Frenkie de Jong have both had fitness concerns, although both are hopeful of being involved. Tunisia also have a new coach in Renard, and that can sometimes create a short-term lift, but that wasn´t the case against Japan, and should not be the case this time either.
There are a few extra angles that make this game more interesting than the standings suggest.
Score Projection: Tunisia 0 - Netherlands 3
Win Probability: Tunisia 12%, Netherlands 68%
The model leans strongly to the Netherlands, with the draw making up most of the remaining probability. Tunisia’s best path is a low-block game, set pieces, and hoping the Dutch waste chances. That can happen in tournament football, but the matchup is poor for them. The Netherlands have too much attacking variety, and Tunisia have shown too many defensive gaps to trust them against a team pushing for top spot in the group.
The safest side is the Netherlands moneyline, but the price is too short. Netherlands -1.5 offers the better betting value if you expect the talent gap to show over 90 minutes.
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