2026 NHL Mock Draft: McKenna to Maple Leafs, Stenberg to Sharks in Top 5 Predictions
Updated July 9, 2026
The 2026 NHL Draft begins Friday night in Buffalo, and this class has a clear top tier even if the exact order remains unsettled. Gavin McKenna has been the expected No. 1 pick for most of the year, Ivar Stenberg has made a serious late push after a remarkable season in Sweden, and Caleb Malhotra gives Vancouver a potential franchise center at No. 3.
Recent trades have added another layer to the first round. Buffalo moved up to No. 4, San Jose acquired a second top-10 selection after trading William Eklund, and several teams now have enough draft capital to reshape the board with an unexpected move.
This mock is built around current team needs, prospect profiles, recent trades and the direction of public scouting. It projects what teams are most likely to do on draft night, not necessarily which players will have the best NHL careers. NHL drafts are never guaranteed to go as planned, and even highly regarded first-round picks can develop in unexpected ways.
Pick | Team | Projected Player | Position | Current Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Toronto Maple Leafs | Gavin McKenna | LW | Penn State (NCAA) |
2 | San Jose Sharks | Ivar Stenberg | LW | Frölunda (SHL) |
3 | Vancouver Canucks | Caleb Malhotra | C | Brantford Bulldogs (OHL) |
4 | Buffalo Sabres | Chase Reid | D | Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds (OHL) |
5 | New York Rangers | Alberts Smits | D | EHC München (DEL) |
Before getting into the mock, here is the current first-round order. Several picks have changed hands in the days leading up to the draft, making this an important reference point for every fan following Round 1.
Pick | Team Holding the Pick |
|---|---|
1 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
2 | San Jose Sharks |
3 | Vancouver Canucks |
4 | Buffalo Sabres (from Chicago Blackhawks) |
5 | New York Rangers |
6 | Calgary Flames |
7 | Seattle Kraken |
8 | Winnipeg Jets |
9 | San Jose Sharks (from Florida Panthers via Ottawa Senators) |
10 | Nashville Predators |
11 | St. Louis Blues |
12 | New Jersey Devils |
13 | New York Islanders |
14 | Columbus Blue Jackets |
15 | St. Louis Blues (from Detroit Red Wings) |
16 | St. Louis Blues (from Washington Capitals) |
17 | Los Angeles Kings |
18 | Washington Capitals (from Anaheim Ducks) |
19 | Utah Mammoth |
20 | Buffalo Sabres (from Edmonton Oilers via San Jose Sharks) |
21 | Philadelphia Flyers |
22 | Pittsburgh Penguins |
23 | Boston Bruins |
24 | Vancouver Canucks (from Minnesota Wild) |
25 | Ottawa Senators (from Tampa Bay Lightning via Seattle Kraken and Florida Panthers) |
26 | New York Rangers (from Dallas Stars via Carolina Hurricanes) |
27 | San Jose Sharks (from Buffalo Sabres) |
28 | Montreal Canadiens |
29 | St. Louis Blues (from Colorado Avalanche via New York Islanders) |
30 | Calgary Flames (from Vegas Golden Knights) |
31 | Carolina Hurricanes |
32 | Ottawa Senators |
A strong mock draft needs more than a list of the best prospects. Talent remains the biggest factor, but team needs, available picks, prospect-pipeline depth, recent trades and management tendencies can all influence the choice.
Other experts broadly agree that McKenna, Stenberg and Malhotra belong in the highest tier of this draft. The largest questions begin with Buffalo at No. 4 and New York at No. 5, where multiple elite defensemen remain available and team needs begin to carry more weight.
McKenna remains the most likely first overall pick, even with Stenberg making the conversation more interesting than many expected. Toronto needs a high-end forward prospect, and McKenna is still the player with the best combination of offensive ceiling, vision and playmaking ability in the class.
The Penn State product produced 51 points in 35 games as an NCAA freshman and showed that his skill level can translate against older, stronger competition. His ability to manipulate defenders, create chances through traffic and make difficult passes at speed gives him true game-breaking potential.
Other experts have rightly raised Stenberg as a legitimate alternative at the top, but McKenna has been the projected No. 1 pick for years and did nothing this season to lose that standing. Toronto gets the player most capable of becoming the offensive centerpiece of its next era.
And if we're going to tap into the latest topic of conversation about American players don't want to play in Canada, well, McKenna's from Yukon so the Leafs avoid that situation.
Why it works: The Maple Leafs need elite forward talent in their system, and McKenna is the highest-upside offensive player available.
San Jose appeared likely to select a defenseman for much of the draft cycle. That logic still makes sense on paper, especially because the organization’s blue-line pipeline is not as strong as its group of young forwards. But the William Eklund trade on Tuesday changes the calculation.
By moving Eklund to Ottawa for the No. 9 pick, the Sharks created a top-six vacancy and gave themselves another premium first-round selection. That makes Stenberg far easier to justify at No. 2. San Jose can take the best forward remaining here, then target a defenseman at No. 9 or No. 27.
Stenberg is a dynamic, mature winger with high-level skill, a dangerous shot and a reliable two-way game. He posted 33 points in 43 SHL games for Frölunda and has consistently impressed against professional and international competition. He has the talent to become an ideal long-term running mate for Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith.
Other experts were split between Stenberg and the top defensemen before the Eklund deal. After that trade, Stenberg feels like the most natural selection unless San Jose receives an overwhelming offer to move the pick.
Part of the defenseman problem will likely be solved by an UFA. I'm being way too nostalgic here, but I wouldn't mind seeing Brent Burns (UFA) make his return to Sharks, but that is not a long-term solution as he turned 41 years old this year.
Why it works: The Eklund trade opened a meaningful need on the wing, while San Jose’s additional first-round picks give the club flexibility to address defense later.
Vancouver needs a foundational prospect more than it needs to force a specific positional fit, but Malhotra happens to check both boxes. The Canucks are short on high-end center talent in their pipeline, and Malhotra is the best true center in this draft.
He delivered 84 points in 67 OHL games before adding 26 points in 15 playoff games for Brantford. At 6-foot-2, Malhotra has the size, intelligence and defensive detail to project as a player who can handle meaningful minutes in all situations. He has enough skill to create offense, but his commitment away from the puck is what separates him from many other center prospects.
His connection to Vancouver will be impossible to ignore. His father, Manny Malhotra, is the Canucks’ coach and has a long history with the organization. That makes this an easy headline, but it should not be the reason for the selection. The hockey case is already strong: Vancouver gets the best center available and a player with the potential to become a long-term top-six driver.
With the Canucks trying to rebuild their team (and identity), I'm not surprised if this happens. I personally am not a fan of the situation that could end up being... sticky. The Canucks have had their fair share of this lately.
Why it works: Malhotra fills Vancouver’s greatest long-term need and is talented enough to justify the selection without relying on the family connection.
Buffalo made the boldest move of draft week by acquiring this pick from Chicago in the Bowen Byram trade. That alone suggests the Sabres are not simply looking for depth. They moved up for the chance to add an elite prospect.
Reid is the best defenseman available in this mock and one of the most debated players in the entire class. Other experts view him as the leading defense prospect, and it is easy to see why. He is an excellent skater with strong vision, a confident transition game and the puck-moving ability required of a modern top-pair defenseman.
This is not a pure needs-based pick. Buffalo’s system already has quality defensive depth and could use more impact wingers. But the departure of Byram creates a pathway for another dynamic defenseman, and Reid is too valuable to pass on at No. 4. He gives Buffalo a potential long-term power-play option and an asset with genuine star upside.
Keaton Verhoeff is a legitimate alternative here, particularly for a front office that values size and a right-shot defender. Still, Reid is the cleaner mock selection because he has been the most consistently linked defenseman to the top of this draft.
Why it works: Buffalo swings for the best player available and replaces some of the long-term upside it moved in the Byram trade.
The Rangers are one of the harder teams to project in the top five. Their system needs more help at center and on defense, and the decision may depend entirely on which player Buffalo takes at No. 4.
With Reid off the board in this mock, New York selects Smits. The Latvian defenseman has climbed steadily throughout the season because he combines NHL size, strong mobility, composure and unusual experience against older competition. He has already played professionally in Europe and showed he could handle the moment on major international stages.
Smits is not necessarily the flashiest defenseman in the class, but he may be one of the more complete and mature options. The Rangers have leaned heavily on veteran defensemen, and their prospect system does not have enough blue-line depth to comfortably sustain the next phase of the roster.
Other experts have considered several directions for New York at No. 5, including another top defenseman or a center. Smits is the type of pick that makes sense for a club trying to remain competitive now while also adding a player who can develop into a dependable top-four defenseman.
This would be the smart move, but Rangers might be looking for something "flashier" than Smits. And when I say flashy, I mean Viggo Björk. There are many similarities to Mats Zuccarello who played for the Rangers between 2010-2019 and was really popular among fans.
Why it works: New York strengthens a thin defensive pipeline with one of the most mature blue-line prospects in the draft.
The biggest wild card remains San Jose at No. 2. The Sharks have said they are open to trading the selection for the right young NHL player, and any move there would alter the entire first round. If San Jose trades down or chooses Chase Reid instead of Stenberg, Vancouver would have a difficult decision between Stenberg and Malhotra at No. 3.
Buffalo is the next major pivot point. Reid and Verhoeff are both realistic choices, and the Sabres could also decide that their need for a high-end winger outweighs the value of another defenseman. If Buffalo passes on Reid, the Rangers would have an easy decision at No. 5.
Assuming this mock holds, the next group could include Carson Carels, Keaton Verhoeff, Daxon Rudolph and Viggo Björck. Calgary, Seattle and Winnipeg all sit in favorable positions to take advantage of a defense-heavy top tier, while San Jose can use its No. 9 pick to address the blue line after landing Stenberg.
The first three picks have become easier to project in the final days before the draft. The real intrigue begins at Buffalo, where the Sabres could decide whether the next selection is about immediate organizational need, the best defenseman available or another major move.
Player | Pos. | Team / League |
|---|---|---|
Gavin McKenna (CAN) | LW | Penn State, NCAA |
Ivar Stenberg (SWE) | LW | Frölunda, SHL |
Caleb Malhotra (CAN) | C | Brantford Bulldogs, OHL |
Chase Reid (USA) | RHD | Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds, OHL |
Carson Carels (CAN) | LHD | Prince George Cougars, WHL |
Viggo Björck (SWE) | C | Djurgården, SHL |
Keaton Verhoeff (CAN) | RHD | North Dakota, NCAA |
Alberts Šmits (LAT) | LHD | EHC München, DEL |
Daxon Rudolph (CAN) | RHD | Prince Albert Raiders, WHL |
Wyatt Cullen (USA) | LW | U.S. NTDP |
Malte Gustafsson (SWE) | LHD | HV71, Sweden U-20 |
Ethan Belchetz (CAN) | LW | Windsor Spitfires, OHL |
Tynan Lawrence (CAN) | C | Boston University, NCAA |
Ryan Lin (CAN) | RHD | Vancouver Giants, WHL |
Oscar Hemming (FIN) | LW | Boston College, NCAA |
Alexander Command (SWE) | C | Örebro, Sweden U-20 |
Nikita Klepov (USA/RUS) | RW | Saginaw Spirit, OHL |
Maksim Sokolovskii (RUS) | LHD | London Knights, OHL |
Adam Novotný (CZE) | LW | Peterborough Petes, OHL |
Elton Hermansson (SWE) | RW | MoDo, Allsvenskan |
Oliver Suvanto (FIN) | C | Tappara, Liiga |
Ilia Morozov (RUS) | C | Miami University, NCAA |
William Håkansson (SWE) | LHD | Almtuna IS, Allsvenskan |
Mathis Preston (CAN) | RW | Vancouver Giants, WHL |
Liam Ruck (CAN) | RW | Medicine Hat Tigers, WHL |
Gleb Pugachyov (RUS) | RW | Chaika Nizhny Novgorod, MHL |
Tommy Bleyl (USA) | RHD | Moncton Wildcats, QMJHL |
J.P. Hurlbert (USA) | LW | Kamloops Blazers, WHL |
Brooks Rogowski (USA) | C | Oshawa Generals, OHL |
Maddox Dagenais (CAN) | C | Québec Remparts, QMJHL |
Xavier Villeneuve (CAN) | LHD | Blainville-Boisbriand Armada, QMJHL |
Markus Ruck (CAN) | C | Medicine Hat Tigers, WHL |
Nationality | Players |
|---|---|
Canada (CAN) | 13 |
Sweden (SWE) | 6 |
United States (USA) | 5 |
Russia (RUS) | 3 |
Finland (FIN) | 2 |
Latvia (LAT) | 1 |
Czechia (CZE) | 1 |
Dual USA/RUS | 1 |
